Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Mid-Latitude Cyclones
Cui, Bo
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Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/2142/85962
Description
Title
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Mid-Latitude Cyclones
Author(s)
Cui, Bo
Issue Date
2004
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Mohan Ramamurthy
Department of Study
Atmospheric Sciences
Discipline
Atmospheric Sciences
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Physics, Atmospheric Science
Language
eng
Abstract
A unique aspect of this work was the assessment of these multiple, distinct mesoscale ensemble subsets, incorporating initial condition, model physics and lateral boundary uncertainties present in mid-latitude cyclone prediction. The use of separate ensemble subsets permitted direct comparison of the contributions from different uncertainty sources. Through the examination of the ensemble prediction results for cyclone central pressure, cyclone track, etc., and through statistical analysis, we gained an understanding of the utility of the MEPS for mid-latitude cyclone prediction. The BGM and PO breeding methods were found to be far superior to the MC method in generation of a set of initial conditions for ensemble prediction. A notable characteristic of the model physics perturbation ensemble is its ability to alleviate the problems caused by the unperturbed lateral boundary condition. The new technique for generating lateral boundary perturbations was successfully implemented and tested, and showed promising results. The large spread values in the lateral boundary ensembles demonstrated the importance of lateral boundary uncertainties in the mesoscale ensemble system.
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