An Analysis of Health Sector Trends: Incorporating Theories of Unbalanced Growth
Maciosek, Michael V.
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/85613
Description
Title
An Analysis of Health Sector Trends: Incorporating Theories of Unbalanced Growth
Author(s)
Maciosek, Michael V.
Issue Date
1997
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Richard Arnould
Department of Study
Economics
Discipline
Economics
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Health Sciences, Health Care Management
Language
eng
Abstract
International studies of health care expenditures find income elasticities of aggregate demand for health care in the range of 1.0 to 1.5. Applying these same models to a U.S. time series using ordinary least squares to estimate a cointegrating relationship yields estimates in this range. Application of more recent time-series methods yields income elasticities of less than one, providing evidence that health care is not a luxury good in aggregate. While we lack the data and the econometric techniques to provide precise estimates, it appears that at most 45 percent of the growth of health care expenditures is preventable without welfare loss through changes in the insurance system and productivity of health services. This portion is likely to be significantly lower in practical terms.
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