Analysis of Price Expectations of Select Illinois Hog Producers
Taylor, William Joseph
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/69884
Description
Title
Analysis of Price Expectations of Select Illinois Hog Producers
Author(s)
Taylor, William Joseph
Issue Date
1987
Department of Study
Agricultural Economics
Discipline
Agricultural Economics
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Economics, Agricultural
Abstract
This dissertation identifies and models the subjective probability distribution of an unknown decision variable, hog price expectations. The four specific goals were: (1) to describe the shape of the subjective probability distribution; (2) to examine how the expectations behave over time and across individuals; (3) to determine how these expectations can best be represented with models based on secondary data; and (4) to identify individual characteristics which are associated with changes in producers subjective probability distributions.
Subjective probability distributions on quarterly price expectations for hogs were obtained from 68 hog producers in Western Illinois. The data indicated that aggregate price expectations were normally distributed. The variance of the price expectations increased as the time between the expectation and realization of the actual price. Individual characteristics did not reveal any factors that could be determined to influence producers' price expectations.
In an effort to best represent the producers' price expectations four models were considered. These models included: (1) a naive model where price expectations remain the same as in the previous period; (2) an adaptive model estimated by an optimal univariate time series of historic prices; (3) a quasi-rational expectations model as estimated by a vector autoregressive model of factors identified by producers that influence hog prices; and (4) a futures market model based on the information contained by the futures prices for the appropriate time periods.
Producer price expectations for a one quarter lead time were most accurately modeled by the naive model. As the time period increased to two and three quarter the quasi-rational expectations model provided the best estimates of the producers' expectations. The futures market model also performed well for the second and third quarter in representing price expectations. The adaptive model consistently performed poorly.
The dissertation has shown that producers' expectations, an unobservable decision variable, can be identified and modeled. However, efforts to identify individual characteristics that influence price expectations were not found.
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