An Investigation of the Sales Forecasting Technique Selection Process Using An Application of Zero-One Goal Programming
Cox, James Edward, Jr.
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Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/2142/67327
Description
Title
An Investigation of the Sales Forecasting Technique Selection Process Using An Application of Zero-One Goal Programming
Author(s)
Cox, James Edward, Jr.
Issue Date
1981
Department of Study
Business Administration
Discipline
Business Administration
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Business Administration, General
Language
eng
Abstract
The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the sales forecasting technique selection process. Two primary objectives follow from this purpose. The first was to propose and demonstrate a methodology (zero-one goal programming) to help preparers and users select the right sales forecasting technique for a given situation. The second was to investigate the sales forecasting process from the viewpoint of practitioners (users and preparers) of the sales forecast.
With respect to the first objective, the history, development, and application of goal programming is discussed. An example is given demonstrating the general goal programming methodology. A discussion is also given relating goal programming to consumer evaluation strategies such as conjunctive, disjunctive, and lexicographic. Finally, an example is given using zero-one integer goal programming in sales forecasting technique selection. Benefits of using this approach are also discussed.
The second objective was achieved by doing a survey of users and preparers of the sales forecast in ten large U.S. companies. In practice it was found that approximately 40% of the preparers implicitly use a goal programming strategy to select a sales forecasting technique for a given situation. It was found that preparers do take into account the achieving of organizational goals when selecting a sales forecasting technique, but perhaps not as much as they should. In terms of criteria used to elevate sales forecasting techniques, both users and preparers considered accuracy to be much more important than any other criterion. Ease of understanding the technique was second in importance. User-consumer interaction was also investigated. The user's perception of the preparer's ability to choose the right technique for a given situation was highly associated with the user's satisfaction with the techniques chosen by the preparer. Also important to the user's satisfaction was the amount of user-preparer communication problems perceived by the user with respect to the selection process and the amount of input the user has into the technique selection process. The following variables were also investigated in more detail: the user's perception of user-preparer communication problems with respect to the sales forecasting technique selection process, the user having input into the sales technique selection process, and the user wanting more input into the technique selection process.
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