The Dynamics of American Welfare Policy: Testing Models of Growth for Aid to Families With Dependent Children
Kincaid, Steven Randall
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/66687
Description
Title
The Dynamics of American Welfare Policy: Testing Models of Growth for Aid to Families With Dependent Children
Author(s)
Kincaid, Steven Randall
Issue Date
1980
Department of Study
Political Science
Discipline
Political Science
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Political Science, General
Language
eng
Abstract
This study examined the causes of growth in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program over the years 1946 through 1977 in Illinois. Specifically, six hypotheses were tested: AFDC growth is a function of population, level of employment, level of anti-poverty spending, incidence of civil disorder, administrative changes, and level of General Assistance caseloads. These hypotheses were tested for all counties in Illinois where data was available.
The results indicated that level of employment, level of anti-poverty spending, and administrative changes were statistically significant causes of AFDC growth. A secondary demographic analysis of patterns of significance among these factors revealed no clear trends in variable significance regarding level of employment and administrative changes. The level of anti-poverty spending variable tended to be significant in more urban counties.
An evaluation of the substantive significance of these findings suggested that the results may lack substantive significance because of relatively low coefficient values. However, the findings imply that a reduction of welfare caseloads may be achieved to some extent by manipulating the level of employment through fiscal and monetary policy.
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