Systematic Treatment of Uncertainty in Consequence-Based Risk Management of Seismic Regional Losses

Chang, Liang; Song, Junho

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/5124 Copy

Description

Title

Systematic Treatment of Uncertainty in Consequence-Based Risk Management of Seismic Regional Losses

Author(s)

• Chang, Liang
• Song, Junho

Issue Date

2006-12

Keyword(s)

• Uncertainty
• Consequence-Based Risk Management (CRM)
• Systematic Treatment
• Seismic
• Regional Loss Estimation
• Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center

Abstract

The Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) center aims to treat various uncertainties inherent in its Consequence-based Risk Management (CRM) in a systematic manner. In order to achieve this goal, a Task Group on Interdisciplinary Coordination (TGIC) of the MAE center develops a probabilistic framework to estimate the uncertainty in social and economic losses in a region caused by seismic hazard. This document presents the probabilistic framework under develop-ment with a numerical example. The total direct loss of an inventory of three buildings is esti-mated with its uncertainty quantified. We incorporate the uncertainties in the intensity of a sce-nario earthquake, inventory identification, performance of structural/non-structural components, content loss, liquefaction hazard, and damage states. Examples on the use of a probabilistic haz-ard map in regional loss estimation and on the direct loss of a bridge inventory are currently un-der development.

Type of Resource

text

Language

en

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/5124

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