Predictive Model for Estimating Wind Farm Power Output
Hughes, Justin T.
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/46974
Description
Title
Predictive Model for Estimating Wind Farm Power Output
Author(s)
Hughes, Justin T.
Contributor(s)
Dominguez-Garcia, Alejandro D.
Issue Date
2010-12
Keyword(s)
wind power
wind power modeling
wind power estimation
wind power prediction
Abstract
This work focuses on improving the accuracy of electric power production pre-
dictions for wind power plants. These predictions can be used for dispatching
generation and identifying under-performing turbines for maintenance. To
predict the wind speed, historical data was sorted into regimes, and a hidden-
Markov model was created to model wind speed switching between them. In
steady state, the relationship between wind speed and electric power production
can be described by a non-linear power curve, but this does not capture
transient effects. This work proposes a model that incorporates a type of
autoregressive function whose parameters are easier to estimate than a
complex physical model. Data from a wind power plant was obtained from a
non-utility generation company for creation and verification of the models.
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