Modeling human decision points in complex systems

Eskins, Douglas

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/42143 Copy

Description

Title

Modeling human decision points in complex systems

Author(s)

Eskins, Douglas

Issue Date

2013-02-03T19:17:11Z

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Sanders, William H.

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Sanders, William H.

Committee Member(s)

• Kirlik, Alex
• Mitra, Sayan
• Nicol, David M.

Department of Study

Electrical & Computer Eng

Discipline

Electrical & Computer Engr

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• cyber-human system
• human decision point
• cyber-security model
• human-influenced task-oriented process model (HITOP)
• multiple-asymmetric-utility system (MAUS) experimental framework
• modeling formalism

Abstract

The actions of human participants in complex systems can greatly affect system outcomes. In particular, the security of cyber-human systems (CHSs) can be highly influenced by the actions, especially the decisions, of human participants within the system. To provide insight into CHS security and aid decision-makers, we propose the Human-Influenced Task-Oriented Process (HITOP) modeling formalism and the Multiple-Asymmetric-Utility System experimental framework (MAUS) as tools to quantitatively evaluate the influence of human actions, especially human decisions, on CHS security. We present both a modeling definition for the CHS and an ontology for identifying the relationships between CHS elements and human task performance. We introduce the Human Decision Point (HDP) as an explicit construct for modeling human decisions and explain how the HDP may be represented within a CHS model. We provide a formal definition of HITOP, its notions of state, and its execution algorithms. We introduce the MAUS experimental framework and formally define several HDP probability solution methods using it. We solve an example CHS modeling problem, and present a set of example results and decision tools. We develop an executable HITOP modeling formalism and use it to analyze a real-world case study.

Graduation Semester

2012-12

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/42143

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2012 Douglas Eskins

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