The efficient market hypothesis and gambling on National Football League games

Sung, Yoon Tae

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/24338 Copy

Description

Title

The efficient market hypothesis and gambling on National Football League games

Author(s)

Sung, Yoon Tae

Issue Date

2011-05-25T14:58:05Z

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Tainsky, Scott

Department of Study

Recreation, Sport and Tourism

Discipline

Recreation, Sport, and Tourism

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• Efficient market hypothesis
• sport betting
• point spread
• rest
• National Football League (NFL)
• bye week

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for sport betting states that all publicly available information should be mirrored in betting lines, so there should be no bias of betting outcomes. Because of several similarities to financial markets, the sport betting market is thought of as a fair market. This investigation tests the EMH in the National Football League betting market from the 2002 to 2009 seasons. This study also examines whether there is a bias after a bye week in terms of the EMH. For this investigation we utilized a significance test for proportion and logistic regression. The findings suggest that, among other biases, favorites and favorites on the road won statistically more bets than their opponents after their bye week. This study provides relevant evidence of inefficiencies within NFL betting.

Graduation Semester

2011-05

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/24338

Copyright and License Information

© 2011 Yoon Tae Sung

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