Exchange rate pass-through: Theoretical and empirical issues
Bishop, Paul Charles
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/22585
Description
Title
Exchange rate pass-through: Theoretical and empirical issues
Author(s)
Bishop, Paul Charles
Issue Date
1994
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Grinols, Earl L.
Department of Study
Economics
Discipline
Economics
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Economics, General
Economics, Theory
Language
eng
Abstract
This dissertation examines several theoretical and empirical issues associated with exchange rate pass-through, defined as the percentage change in import prices for a one percent change in the exchange rate. The theoretical sections of this study posit a conjectural variations model of industrial competition. In its simplest form there is one domestic and one foreign firm that each set a price for a differentiated good based on simple profit maximization criteria under various conjectures about the other firm's response. Unlike previous pass-through models, it is recognized that firms use inputs that can be from a home or foreign country supplier. Sourcing is defined as the extent to which one firm uses as an input a good from the other country. Therefore, the extent to which each firm uses a sourced input will expose each firm's costs to exchange rate fluctuations. It is shown that as the extent of sourcing by the foreign firm increases, the pass-through elasticity on domestic import prices becomes more inelastic. Thus, we would expect that as the amount of inter-industry trade in intermediate goods increases, import prices would become less responsive to the exchange rate. The model is extended to an industry structure where there is a set of identical domestic and a set of identical foreign firms. It is shown that as the number of foreign firms increases, the pass-through elasticity becomes more elastic.
The empirical section of the study estimates exchange rate pass-through for manufactured goods and for auto imports from five countries. Using the technique of Transfer Function-Noise Models, it is shown that for manufactured goods, import prices did not change as much as historical experience would have suggested given the exchange rate swing of the eighties. A statistically valid measure of the size of the deviation is calculated along with a test for structural stability of the model. In all cases, the test for stability indicated that a structural change occurred during the early eighties exchange rate appreciation. Similar results are also derived for auto imports from Germany, Italy and Japan.
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