Education and labor supply: An extended demographic model of the Chicago region
Campbell, Harrison Sherwood, Jr
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Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/2142/21568
Description
Title
Education and labor supply: An extended demographic model of the Chicago region
Author(s)
Campbell, Harrison Sherwood, Jr
Issue Date
1994
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.
Department of Study
Geography
Discipline
Geography
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Geography
Sociology, Demography
Language
eng
Abstract
This thesis develops an extended demographic model of the Chicago region which projects the educational attributes of the population. The region is further subdivided into two zones, city and suburb, and two racial/ethnic groups are identified and disaggregated according to gender. Central to the methodology is disaggregation of the school age population into student states and application of the concept of educational survivorship to simulate student flows through all levels of education. The model resembles the supply side of a manpower requirements model when education and other variables are used to project the supply of occupationally qualified labor within a regional labor market. This notion of supply is compared with independent projections of occupational demand to determine the nature and extent of possible imbalances in the labor market by labor type.
Simulation results indicate that while total population growth is likely to resemble past growth rates, the human capital attributes of the region are likely to bifurcate spatially, particularly among 15 to 24 year old labor force members. Baseline estimates suggest that the educational structure of the population will not support projected occupational demands. Several sensitivity analyses are performed on education parameters to determine the extent to which the regional system of education can help alleviate potential imbalances in the labor market. It is found that reducing the Chicago high school dropout rate by 50% produces the largest improvement in the occupational supply-demand balance. Other results, however, suggest that community colleges may be uniquely positioned to help alleviate imbalances in the labor market if average learning times could be reduced.
It is concluded that while the regional system of education can help alleviate possible imbalances in the labor market, it can only do so (a) at the margin, (b) over the long run and (c) for specific segments of the labor force. Market clearing would probably be achieved through occupationally selective migration.
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