An analysis of pre-election violence through decision theory, experimental design and spatial econometrics

Dilgin, Tolgahan

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/122032 Copy

Description

Title

An analysis of pre-election violence through decision theory, experimental design and spatial econometrics

Author(s)

Dilgin, Tolgahan

Issue Date

2023-12-01

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Tam Cho, Wendy K.

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Tam Cho, Wendy K.

Committee Member(s)

• Gaines, Brian J
• Hummel, Sarah
• Carroll, Robert

Department of Study

Political Science

Discipline

Political Science

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

pre-election violence, decision theory, natural experiment, geographically weighted regression, spatial econometrics

Abstract

This dissertation explores the multifaceted dynamics of pre-election violence across three interconnected chapters. In the first chapter, I focus on the conflicting perspectives in the literature surrounding the geography of pre-election violence. The proposed decision-theoretic model suggests that the location of violence is largely determined by the perpetrating party’s ability to distinguish its own supporters from those of its rivals, a capability I define as “discrimination capacity.” The findings posit that violence can occur both in competitive districts and party strongholds in settings where perpetrating parties have high discrimination capacity. In contrast, the absence or low levels of this capacity create a stricter geographical divide, with violence concentrated in opposition-dominated districts. The second chapter delves into the impact of pre-election violence on voter behavior. This chapter utilizes a causal identification strategy by leveraging an unexpected inter-party violent event that divided a public opinion survey into two comparable (pre- and post-violence) samples in Zimbabwe. Through a Difference-in-Differences analysis, the chapter reveals differential effects of violence on opposition and government supporters’ mobilization. The third chapter uncovers divergent effects across geographic contexts, emphasizing the role of spatial dynamics in shaping the relationship between heightened levels of fear and political participation within different religious groups in Nigeria. Findings from the geographically weighted regression analysis show that extreme fear leads to political mobilization for Christians and Muslims in areas where they form the majority and demobilization when they are a minority within their surrounding communities. In conclusion, the dissertation findings underscore the importance of governing parties’ discrimination capacity, contextual factors, and spatial heterogeneity in understanding the complex interplay between pre-election violence, extreme fear and voter turnout. The insights presented hold implications for scholars, policymakers, and electoral practitioners navigating the challenges posed by pre-election violence in diverse socio-political contexts.

Graduation Semester

2023-12

Type of Resource

Thesis

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2023 Tolgahan Dilgin

Owning Collections