Assessing large-scale climate influences on U.S. tornado outbreaks and potential insurance industry applications

Elizondo, Antonio M

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/121548 Copy

Description

Title

Assessing large-scale climate influences on U.S. tornado outbreaks and potential insurance industry applications

Author(s)

Elizondo, Antonio M

Issue Date

2023-07-21

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Sriver, Ryan L

Committee Member(s)

• Trapp, Robert J
• Sime, Laura

Department of Study

Atmospheric Sciences

Discipline

Atmospheric Sciences

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• ENSO
• NAO
• Climate
• Tornado outbreak events/days/months/risks
• Insurance loss/risk/applications

Abstract

Devastating tornado outbreak events are a serious risk for substantial insurance losses in the United States. Improved assessments of these event risks are vital for mitigating future losses. Here, we aim to improve these risk assessments by exploring the influences of two large- scale climate signals, consisting of ENSO (Niño 3.4 region) and NAO, on tornado outbreaks in the conterminous United States. Tornado outbreak event probabilities were derived from both climate signals via multiple statistical analyses and a machine learning predictive model. A combination of negative ENSO and positive NAO conditions generated the largest event probabilities. Additional kernel density estimate maps created from tornado outbreak events found the highest concentration of tornado records over the Southeastern United States. We then utilize our research results to explore practical insurance risk applications such as hazard model integration, exposure visualization, and reinsurance purchasing. These risk applications show real promise of making meaningful contributions toward solving this major insurance industry issue.

Graduation Semester

2023-08

Type of Resource

Thesis

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2023 Antonio Elizondo

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