Essays on labor and migration economics

Medina-Cortina, Eduardo M

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/120359 Copy

Description

Title

Essays on labor and migration economics

Author(s)

Medina-Cortina, Eduardo M

Issue Date

2023-04-16

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

• Bernhardt, Mark D
• Borgschulte, Mark

Committee Member(s)

• Lubotsky, Darren
• Osman, Adam M

Department of Study

Economics

Discipline

Economics

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• Labor economics
• migration economics
• undocumented migration

Abstract

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study topics on labor and migration economics. The first and third chapters investigate the dissemination of U.S. policy and economic innovations into Mexico through migrant networks. The second chapter examines the consequences of economic recessions on Mexican labor markets, as well as their long-term adjustments, including emigration from Mexico to the U.S. In Chapter 1, I study the impacts of deportations on Mexican immigrant populations already residing in the U.S., as well as potential immigrants outside the country prior to migration. I do so by combining micro-level data on undocumented migrants from Mexico and nationally representative U.S. survey data. I then use an IV strategy that exploits local variation in deportations driven by the staggered rollout of the Secure Communities program (2008-2013), the size of the local undocumented population before activation, and the extent of local authorities’ engagement with the program. Estimates suggest that deportations reduce local undocumented populations by more than one-for-one, partly due to internal relocations. Long-term, local immigration enforcement reduces the probability of new immigrants settling in a location even when there is a network connection, and it reduces the probability of incoming flows forming new network links. Together, this establishes migrant network disruptions. I then estimate the impact of increased exposure to immigration enforcement at the origin via networks on new migration. I find that exposure reduces migrant outflows, indicating a direct deterrence effect. I also find that exposure increases new migrants’ educational attainment, expected wages upon arrival, and increases the proportion of incoming migrants who speak English, with no effect on the age and gender mix. These findings suggest that migrant networks are widespread and active in the US, and that local immigration enforcement permanently shifts migratory networks, generating new regional migration patterns. In Chapter 2, we (together with Gerardo Esquivel, Raymundo Campos and Priyasmita Ghosh) investigate the scope of employment and earnings losses in Mexico induced by the Great Recession. Using longitudinal social security data and exploiting regional variation in local shocks, we identify a variety of labor market responses during the recession. We find that the costs of the recession were substantial and unequal. In the short run, a one standard deviation above the average local shock reduced the probability of employment by 0.53 percent and daily wages by 0.86 percent, compared to pre-recession levels. In the long run, affected formal sector workers never returned to pre-recession levels. The effects of the recession were heterogeneous across workers, and they were disproportionately higher for men and younger workers. Finally, we estimate the different margins of worker’s adjustment in response to the recession. We find that a shock that is one standard deviation above the mean reduced employment by 0.36 percent by the end of the recession, while increasing unemployment by 7.5 percent, informality by 1.1 percent, the economically inactive population by 0.44 percent, and migration from Mexico to the U.S. by 9.2 percent. Chapter 3 examines some of the economic uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We (together with Lelys Dinarte, David Jaume and Hernan Winkler) investigate the unexpected fact that remittances from the U.S. to several developing countries increased substantially during the initial months of the pandemic. We argue that this rise partially stemmed from a shift in remittances from informal channels to formal ones. Using Mexican data, we find the rise in registered inflows was larger among municipalities that previously relied more on informal channels (i.e., those near a border crossing). These municipalities consistently experienced a disproportionate increase in the number of bank accounts opened since lockdown measures took effect. We rule out alternative hypotheses such as the role of the CARES Act and altruism.

Graduation Semester

2023-05

Type of Resource

Thesis

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2013, Eduardo M. Medina Cortina

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