Quantifying Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ridership of CTA Rail and Bus Systems in Chicago

Liu, Yining; Osorio, Jesus; Ouyang, Yanfeng

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/117430 Copy

Description

Title

Quantifying Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ridership of CTA Rail and Bus Systems in Chicago

Author(s)

• Liu, Yining
• Osorio, Jesus
• Ouyang, Yanfeng

Issue Date

2023-04

Keyword(s)

• COVID-19
• Transit Ridership
• Bayesian Structural Time Series
• Temporal Analysis
• Forecast
• Spatial Analysis

Abstract

This study’s research team conducted a comprehensive statistical analysis to help transit agencies better understand factors that may have contributed to transit ridership loss and the extent of its impacts. Building off ICT-IDOT project R27-SP45, they developed a series of statistical models for the Chicago Transit Authority’s rail and bus systems. Data-driven analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on CTA bus and rail ridership can help the Illinois Department of Transportation and Regional Transportation Authority, as well as other transit agencies, make policy decisions on planning resources and services during and after the pandemic. This study’s research team observed that most of the identified pandemic and socioeconomic factors, especially work occupancy rates, vaccination rates, discount programs, and crime rates, have affected over 80 to 90 percent of all CTA rail stations and bus lines. It is also observed that different population groups may react differently to policy decisions. The fare discount program, for example, may be most successful in attracting transit trips from the employed population in the health and retail industries. In particular, the temporal and spatial analyses show that work occupancy rates are crucial to answering most of the ridership loss at all of CTA’s bus lines and rail stations because workplace commute trips have driven a large proportion of CTA ridership. Therefore, transit ridership recovery may depend on individual industries’ remote work policies rather than city-wide quarantine executive orders. This could further suggest that transit agencies may need to collaborate closely with specific industry sectors to expedite the recovery of public transit ridership.

Publisher

Illinois Center for Transportation/Illinois Department of Transportation

Has Part

• https://doi.org/10.36501/0197-9191/23-002
• ISSN: 0197-9191

Series/Report Name or Number

FHWA-ICT-23-001

Type of Resource

text

Language

en

Sponsor(s)/Grant Number(s)

IDOT-R27-SP53

Copyright and License Information

No restrictions. This document is available through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.

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