University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Quantifying Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ridership of CTA Rail and Bus Systems in Chicago

Liu, Yining; Osorio, Jesus; Ouyang, Yanfeng

Content Files
FHWA-ICT-23-001.pdf

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/117430

Description

Title
Quantifying Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ridership of CTA Rail and Bus Systems in Chicago
Author(s)
  • Liu, Yining
  • Osorio, Jesus
  • Ouyang, Yanfeng
Issue Date
2023-04
Keyword(s)
  • COVID-19
  • Transit Ridership
  • Bayesian Structural Time Series
  • Temporal Analysis
  • Forecast
  • Spatial Analysis
Abstract
This study’s research team conducted a comprehensive statistical analysis to help transit agencies better understand factors that may have contributed to transit ridership loss and the extent of its impacts. Building off ICT-IDOT project R27-SP45, they developed a series of statistical models for the Chicago Transit Authority’s rail and bus systems. Data-driven analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on CTA bus and rail ridership can help the Illinois Department of Transportation and Regional Transportation Authority, as well as other transit agencies, make policy decisions on planning resources and services during and after the pandemic. This study’s research team observed that most of the identified pandemic and socioeconomic factors, especially work occupancy rates, vaccination rates, discount programs, and crime rates, have affected over 80 to 90 percent of all CTA rail stations and bus lines. It is also observed that different population groups may react differently to policy decisions. The fare discount program, for example, may be most successful in attracting transit trips from the employed population in the health and retail industries. In particular, the temporal and spatial analyses show that work occupancy rates are crucial to answering most of the ridership loss at all of CTA’s bus lines and rail stations because workplace commute trips have driven a large proportion of CTA ridership. Therefore, transit ridership recovery may depend on individual industries’ remote work policies rather than city-wide quarantine executive orders. This could further suggest that transit agencies may need to collaborate closely with specific industry sectors to expedite the recovery of public transit ridership.
Publisher
Illinois Center for Transportation/Illinois Department of Transportation
Has Part
  • https://doi.org/10.36501/0197-9191/23-002
  • ISSN: 0197-9191
Series/Report Name or Number
FHWA-ICT-23-001
Type of Resource
text
Genre of Resource
technical report
Language
en
Sponsor(s)/Grant Number(s)
IDOT-R27-SP53
Copyright and License Information
No restrictions. This document is available through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.

Owning Collections

Research and Publications - Illinois Center for Transportation PRIMARY