University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

A flood preparedness tool for Chicago: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaling to improve rainfall forecasts and flood mitigation

Ragauskis, Michael Thomas

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RAGAUSKIS-THESIS-2022.pdf

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115785

Description

Title
A flood preparedness tool for Chicago: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaling to improve rainfall forecasts and flood mitigation
Author(s)
Ragauskis, Michael Thomas
Issue Date
2022-04-27
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Dominguez, Francina
Committee Member(s)
  • Jewett, Brian
  • Frame, Jeffrey
Department of Study
Atmospheric Sciences
Discipline
Atmospheric Sciences
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
  • numerical weather prediction
  • flooding
  • Chicago
  • rainfall
  • WRF
Abstract
Flooding is a chronic problem for the city of Chicago, Illinois, with only coastal areas of hurricane-ravaged states receiving more federal flood aid in some years. Low-income households and neighborhoods are especially hard hit. Exacerbating the problem is the lack of a system to provide accurate and timely forecasts of urban flooding to communities and hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) infrastructure managers. This work is part of a large effort to build a tool to forecast and communicate flood risk at the community-scale for the city of Chicago. Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaling to hindcast four significant flooding events, we demonstrate that areal rainfall forecasts can be generated at 1 km horizontal grid spacing and up to 24-hour lead times with more skill than current operational models. WRF generated precipitation can then force H&H models to provide sewer flow forecasts. These optimized forecasts will enable vulnerable communities and city-wide infrastructure managers to effectively prepare for and mitigate urban flooding and its effects on the Chicago-area waterway system.
Graduation Semester
2022-05
Type of Resource
Thesis
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115785
Copyright and License Information
Copyright 2022 Michael Ragauskis

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