Evaluating effectiveness of irrigation technification using a calibrated optimization model in the primary irrigation district of Guanajuato, Mexico
Cherry, Charlotte Kayann
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115647
Description
Title
Evaluating effectiveness of irrigation technification using a calibrated optimization model in the primary irrigation district of Guanajuato, Mexico
Author(s)
Cherry, Charlotte Kayann
Issue Date
2022-04-25
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Cai, Ximing
Sivapalan, Murugesu
Brown, Casey
Department of Study
Civil & Environmental Eng
Discipline
Civil Engineering
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
irrigation technification
irrigation efficiency
agriculture
positive mathematical programming
optimization
water security
Abstract
Globally, the majority of water is used for irrigated agriculture. Guanajuato, Mexico, is a leading agricultural area upon which the Mexican economy and importers depend. However, growing pressure from urban and industrial development, as well as worsening droughts due to climate change, threaten agricultural production in this region. Improving agricultural water management is vital for reaching water security in Guanajuato. One of the primary recommendations is to implement irrigation efficiency measures, yet there is a lack of understanding about the efficacy of these measures for reducing overall water use and achieving water use sustainability while maintaining revenue for producers. This study uses an optimization model, calibrated to historical data, to assess how changes in water availability and changes in irrigation efficiency would affect water use, economic earnings, and crop choices of producers within the largest irrigation district (Irrigation District 11) in Guanajuato, Mexico. The results provide insight into which subdistricts would be most affected by drought, and for which subdistricts improved irrigation efficiency could produce the greatest gains. In addition, the optimized crop mix under different efficiency scenarios demonstrates where efforts for irrigation technification could be most beneficial and how the crop mix would change under these varied conditions. Under current policy conditions, irrigation technification alone is not enough to reduce water scarcity. Improved irrigation efficiency must be paired with sound water management policies to ensure that the desired results are achieved. If these policies are not implemented, it is possible that Guanajuato would fall victim to Jevons paradox (or the irrigation paradox) where farmers expand irrigated area or switch to more water intensive crops, actions which negate the intended purpose of improved efficiency. Without limits on the expansion of irrigated land, water use will not be reduced even with great improvements in irrigation efficiency.
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