Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response

Ding, Chenghao

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115387 Copy

Description

Title

Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response

Author(s)

Ding, Chenghao

Issue Date

2022-04-12

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Singer, Clifford

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Singer, Clifford

Committee Member(s)

• Stubbins, James
• Di Fulvio, Angela
• Sriver, Ryan

Department of Study

Nuclear, Plasma, & Rad Engr

Discipline

Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

Global heat balance model, Climate sensitivity, Natural transients, Probability distribution

Abstract

In this work, time series data for global average temperature and ocean heat content are used to calibrate the global heat balance model parameters including climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and a regional inhomogeneous radiative forcing multiplier. In this work, separate models are proposed to fit historical natural transients from the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic aerosols, and solar variability respectively. Also, a probability distribution of λ, cth, and creg is found by removing the natural transients out from temperature observations. A new carbon balance model is used to account for departures from equilibrium between atmospheric CO2 and other reservoirs for anthropogenic carbon emissions. Assuming averages over natural transient effects having zero mean, extrapolation is done to get a probability distribution for future global average temperature.

Graduation Semester

2022-05

Type of Resource

Thesis

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2022 Chenghao Ding

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