Hydrological responses to the synergistic changes in climate and land cover in the alpine pastoral region

Xie, Mingyue

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/113217 Copy

Description

Title

Hydrological responses to the synergistic changes in climate and land cover in the alpine pastoral region

Author(s)

Xie, Mingyue

Issue Date

2021-07-20

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Cai, Ximing

Department of Study

Civil & Environmental Eng

Discipline

Civil Engineering

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• Climate change
• SWAT
• Land use
• Land cover
• NDVI
• Soil erosion
• Sediment yield

Abstract

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change is imperative for sustainable river basin management. In this study, hydrological regimes of the upper Lancang River Basin under environmental changes are assessed using a semi-distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The non-parametric test is used to analyze the trend of hydro-meteorological variables based on the hydro-meteorological data time series analysis during the period of 1978 - 2014. Global Climate Models (or General Circulation Model, GCMs) under RCP 4.5 is used to assess the future climate (2021-2080); future hypothetical land-use change (2040) is predicted by Land Change Modeler (LCM). The modelling results are evaluated in four scenarios: scenario 1 with historical land use and climate, scenario 2 with the current land use and climate data from the past, scenario 3 with the current land use map and future climate, and scenario 4 with future land use and future climate. Consequently, sediment yield rises by 5.0 %, 17.9 %, and 25.9 % under scenarios 2, 3, and 4, respectively, as compared to scenario 1. The results indicate that the transition from pasture to cropland has been the topmost contributor to the increase in runoff and sediment yield, which is likely to continue to the future. Additionally, climate and land use change have a larger synergistic influence than their separate effects. This study quantitatively assesses the hydrological responses to environmental changes in an alpine pastoral area and provides supports for sustainable river basin management.

Graduation Semester

2021-08

Type of Resource

Thesis

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/113217

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2021 Mingyue Xie

Owning Collections