Evaluation of Illinois Bridge Deterioration Models

Fu, Gongkang

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/110385 Copy

Description

Title

Evaluation of Illinois Bridge Deterioration Models

Author(s)

Fu, Gongkang

Issue Date

2021-09

Keyword(s)

• Bridge
• NBI Condition Rating
• Condition Rating History
• Transition Time
• Weibull Distribution
• Deterioration Curve
• Condition Rating Forecast

Abstract

The National Bridge Inventory bridge inspection system ranks the condition of bridge components on a scale of zero to nine. The resulting condition ratings represent an important element considered in deciding measures for bridge maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation. Thus, forecasting future condition ratings well is critical to reliable planning for these activities and estimating the costs. The Illinois Department of Transportation currently has deterministic models for this purpose. This study’s objective is to review the current models using condition rating histories gathered from 1980 to 2020 in Illinois for the following bridge components: deck, superstructure, substructure, culvert, and deck beam. The results show the current Illinois Department of Transportation models are inadequate in forecasting condition ratings, producing overestimates of the transition times between two condition rating levels for these components / systems, except for the deck beam, which is underestimated. It is recommended that the mean transition times found in this study from condition rating histories are used to replace the current models as a short-term solution. Further research is recommended to develop probabilistic models as a long-term solution to address observed significant variation or uncertainty in condition rating and transition times between condition rating levels.

Publisher

Illinois Center for Transportation/Illinois Department of Transportation

Series/Report Name or Number

FHWA-ICT-21-024

ISSN

0197-9191

Type of Resource

text

Language

en

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/110385

DOI

https://doi.org/10.36501/0197-9191/21-029

Sponsor(s)/Grant Number(s)

IDOT-ICT-SP46

Copyright and License Information

No restrictions. This document is available through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.

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