University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Modeling COVID-19 with the susceptible-infected-removed model

Lim, Junyeob

Content Files
SP20-ECE499-Thesis-Lim, Junyeob (1) (1).pdf

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/107776

Description

Title
Modeling COVID-19 with the susceptible-infected-removed model
Author(s)
Lim, Junyeob
Contributor(s)
Moulin, Pierre
Issue Date
2020-05
Keyword(s)
  • COVID-19
  • coronavirus
  • disease modeling
  • epidemiology
  • susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model
  • suppression
Date of Ingest
2020-07-17T16:24:06Z
Abstract
The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model characterizes an epidemic via a set of differential equations governing the change in the sizes of the susceptible, infected and removed portions of a population affected by the epidemic. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a currently ongoing pandemic caused by a virus identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 that so far has infected millions and killed thousands of people globally. In this thesis, the trajectory of COVID-19 in three regions around the world is forecasted by fitting an SIR model to time series data of reported confirmed and recovered numbers of cases of COVID-19 in these regions. In addition, COVID-19 in the United States is forecasted using data before and after the enactment of suppression measures to contain the disease. Our findings validate the claims of public health officials on the effectiveness of suppression measures such as lockdown, social distancing and self-isolation at slowing down the spread of COVID-19.
Type of Resource
text
Genre of Resource
other
Language
en
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/2142/107776

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