The impact of Brazil on global grain dynamics: A study on cross-market volatility spillovers

Grimaldi Avileis, Felipe

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/105685 Copy

Description

Title

The impact of Brazil on global grain dynamics: A study on cross-market volatility spillovers

Author(s)

Grimaldi Avileis, Felipe

Issue Date

2019-07-15

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Mallory, Mindy L.

Committee Member(s)

• Garcia, Philip
• Serra Devesa, Maria Teresa

Department of Study

Agr & Consumer Economics

Discipline

Agricultural & Applied Econ

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• grains
• volatility
• garch
• Brazil
• spillovers
• corn
• soybeans
• commodity prices
• safrinha

Abstract

We will investigate the evolution of the relationship between Brazilian and Global grain markets. Through a three step approach, we will test the series for cointegration, proceed with the adequate modeling (VAR or VECM) and use the residuals of these models to estimate a BEKK GARCH and relative volatility spillovers across two time periods, before and after Brazil started double-cropping. Our results indicate no significant cointegration between corn and soybeans markets before Brazil started double-cropping and significant cointegration after, for both markets. Volatility spillovers dynamics also changes, from no spillovers to spillovers from and to Brazil on corn, and from the US spilling over Brazil to Brazil spilling over to the US on soybeans. Our results are important because they show that the importance of Brazil to global grain price formation is substantial and risk managers must be aware of it in order to perform well.

Graduation Semester

2019-08

Type of Resource

text

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/105685

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2019 Felipe Grimaldi Avileis

Owning Collections