How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates
Hanna, Alexis Victoria
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/102859
Description
Title
How accurate are interest inventories? A quantitative review of career choice hit rates
Author(s)
Hanna, Alexis Victoria
Issue Date
2018-12-11
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Rounds, James
Committee Member(s)
Newman, Daniel A.
Department of Study
Psychology
Discipline
Psychology
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
Interest inventory
validity
career choice
Abstract
Every year, millions of people use interest inventories to help them make educational and career choices. The present meta-analysis examines the criterion-related validity of interest inventories in predicting career choice outcomes, such as college major choice and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates over 75 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model to quantitatively estimate the overall hit rate, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated predictive accuracy rate of 50.3% in successfully predicting career choice. Due to a substantial amount of true heterogeneity in effect sizes, we tested several potential moderators. In particular, the hit rate accuracy was moderated by concurrent versus predictive criterion assessment, criterion interest category, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, career choice criterion, method used to match criterion to a scale, and hit rate method. Additionally, the present study is an attempt to reintroduce base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. Implications for future research are discussed.
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