University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Development of an alternative approach to transit demand modeling

Chistyakov, Ilya Konstantinovich

Content Files
CHISTYAKOV-THESIS-2017.pdf

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/97464

Description

Title
Development of an alternative approach to transit demand modeling
Author(s)
Chistyakov, Ilya Konstantinovich
Issue Date
2017-04-26
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Chakraborty, Arnab
Committee Member(s)
Lee, Bumsoo
Department of Study
Urban & Regional Planning
Discipline
Urban Planning
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.U.P.
Degree Level
Thesis
Date of Ingest
2017-08-10T19:16:05Z
Keyword(s)
  • Urban planning
  • Transit demand
  • Land use
  • Transportation planning
  • Travel demand modeling (TDM)
Abstract
Development of the transit systems around the nation faces limitations in funding and strict scrutiny of the proposed projects and their potential impact on urban environment. Potential ridership of the proposed transit route becomes one of the key indicators for analysis of investment projects. Transit demand depends on many multifaceted parameters affecting the mode choice of individual commuters. The urban planning as a field faces the demand in creation of a universal model which would allow to estimate transit demand of the areas of different scales and geographies, be simple to interpret and to replicate in any conditions. The research is discussing the process of development of a model able to predict potential transit demand under provision of a certain level of service based on the socio-economic parameters of the area within walking distance of a transit station. The modeling approach is based on the analysis of real transit ridership of rail stations in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Denver and the parameters possibly contributing to the number of passengers using them. The selection of the variables of the model was based on the most recent research in the field and relied on the multidimensional approach including regional and local scales of socio-economic and transit data. The resulting model included ten independent variables with R2 of 0.59 with multiple statistical tests confirming the assumptions of the model and statistical significance of the results with some limitations in accuracy of predictions. The project included creation of a GIS and online mapping tools for deeper analysis of interconnections between built environment and transit demand. The created Transit Demand Index can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution within metropolitan areas to identify the locations where transit investment would have the most significant outcome. The possible applications of this model include preliminary justification of transit projects, small area plans and corridor studies, long-range transportation plans and implementations in Travel Demand Modeling software.
Graduation Semester
2017-05
Type of Resource
text
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/2142/97464
Copyright and License Information
Copyright 2017 Ilya Chistyakov

Owning Collections

Graduate Dissertations and Theses at Illinois PRIMARY
Graduate Theses and Dissertations at Illinois
Dissertations and Theses - Urban and Regional Planning
Dissertations in Regional Planning